Derisky Business

Emily and Geoff dive in on the unfinished business Trump is inheriting and unpack what we learned from the America First Trade Policy executive memo. Plus we share a few thoughts on how to get the economic security agenda started on the right track, based on our contributions to a new CNAS report on Trump’s First 100 Days.
Show notes:
America First Trade Policy memo
Stephan Miran’s “A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System"
CNAS Report: “The First 100 Days”
And see CNAS “Disorderly Conduct” report for prior analysis of the U.S.-China Phase One Agreement, the merging of economic and security interests, and the need for economic security agreements

AI expert Paul Scharre, executive vice president and director of studies at the Center for a New American Security, joins Emily and Geoff to dig into the Biden Administration’s latest export controls on advanced semiconductors and AI plus the prospects for building a global regime to control AI diffusion.
Press release and summary of the AI diffusion rule from the Commerce Department 
Paul Scharre, Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence 
Paul Scharre, “Decoupling Wastes U.S. Leverage on China,” Foreign Policy
Paul Scharre, “Regulating AI is Easier than you Think,” Time
Epoch AI, a great data source on AI developments: epoch.ai

Deputy Secretary Don Graves joins Emily to talk about the national security mission of the Department of Commerce and to unveil Commerce’s national security strategy.
Read the strategy: “The Decisive Decade: Advancing National Security at the Department of Commerce”

Join Emily and Geoff to catch up on a whole bunch of economic security news, including the ill fated Nippon Steel / U.S. Steel deal, new chips export controls, and TikTik’s bad day in court. Plus, introducing ‘Tariff Tarot,’ a segment to help you make sense of all the tariff proposals and threats from the incoming administration, and an explainer on whether the President has the power to impose all the tariffs he’s talking about (spoiler: yup, sure does).
Read more!
Jacob Helberg, “The Wires of War: Technology and the Global Struggle for Power” https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/The-Wires-of-War/Jacob-Helberg/9781982144449
Financial Times, “Biden administration split over US Steel deal” https://www.ft.com/content/c86cebe1-6ece-42cc-9d89-65d96bbd69c6
Edward Alden, “Trump Will Be His Own Trade Czar” Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/12/11/trump-trade-tariffs-china-europe-canada-mexico-imports-exports/
Douglas A. Irwin, “Clashing over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy” https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/C/bo24475328.html
Kathleen Claussen and Timothy Meyer, “How ‘Economic Security’ is Re-shaping Presidential Power” Just Security https://www.justsecurity.org/97760/economic-security-presidential-power/

Emily and Geoff react to the nominations of Scott Bessent for U.S. Treasury Secretary and Howard Lutnick for U.S. Commerce Secretary and overall point man for trade and tariffs. Then Evan Robinson-Johnson, business reporter from the Pittsburgh Post Gazette, joins to talk about the national security review of Nippon Steel’s bid to buy U.S. Steel - which both President Biden and President-elect Trump have vowed to block. Complicated labor union dynamics, the companies’ threat to sue, and election-year politics have kept this deal in purgatory, but an impending government deadline could force action in the coming weeks.
“Editorial: Time for post-election sanity: Approve Nippon-U.S. Steel deal” by the Pittsburgh Post Gazette editorial board“Japanese steelmaker Nippon says it will not accept presidential block of U.S. Steel deal” by Evan Robinson-Johnson, Pittsburgh Post Gazette
“Arbitration board signals support for U.S. Steel’s sale to Nippon in a blow to United Steelworkers union” by Evan Robinson-Johnson, Pittsburgh Post Gazette
"US Steel Review Targeted by Republicans for Potential Probe" by Josh Wingrove, Bloomberg 
“Under Pressure, Dubai Company Drops Ports Deal” by David E. Sanger, The New York Times
Ralls V. CFIUS decision by U.S. Court of Appeals, District of Columbia Circuit

Emily and Geoff switch from obsessing over the election to obsessing over the transition. They dig into what a Trump 2.0 presidency will mean for tariffs, sanctions, export controls, and technology competition - and how the rest of the world might respond.

The Biden administration released its final rule on regulating outbound U.S. investments going into sensitive tech sectors in China. Emily and Geoff dig into the rule, along with what to expect next from Congress and international partners.
Check out prior CNAS work on outbound investment:
Joint CNAS-Atlantic Council report, "Sand in the Silicon: Designing an Outbound Investment Controls Mechanism"
Public comments on the draft rule:https://www.cnas.org/publications/commentary/comments-on-provisions-pertaining-to-u[…]nal-security-technologies-and-products-in-countries-of-concernhttps://www.cnas.org/publications/commentary/provisions-pertaining-to-u-s-investmen[…]nal-security-technologies-and-products-in-countries-of-concern
Congressional testimony:
https://www.cnas.org/publications/congressional-testimony/principles-and-policy-options-for-designing-better-investment-barriers

Emily and Geoff tackle some of the most common questions on starting and building a career in the field of economic security, with the help of Michèle Flournoy, former Under Secretary of Defense as well as the co-founder and current Chair of the Board of the Center for a New American Security, and John Hughes, a partner at the strategic advisory firm DGA Group and a CNAS Adjunct Senior Fellow.
Check out CNAS’ current internship and job opportunities at https://www.cnas.org/careers.
and read Michèle's recommendation:
A Passion for Leadership: Lessons on Change and Reform from Fifty Years of Public Service by Bob Gates.

Join Emily Kilcrease and researcher Eleanor Hume to discuss the latest edition of CNAS's Sanctions by the Numbers series, examining how the U.S.'s sanctions policy on China has shifted under the Biden administration. 
Find the full report and its findings here: Sanctions by the Numbers: Comparing the Trump and Biden Administrations’ Sanctions and Export Controls on China

That escalated quickly! Emily and Geoff discuss why the U.S. aim to deny China access to the computing power necessary for frontier AI capabilities has led to an ever expanding set of new export controls. They are joined by Reed Albergotti of Semafor to talk about what this means for the Middle East's tech ambitions and by Pablo Chavez to share his analysis on the drive for sovereign AI around the world.
 
Check out Emily's remarks on America's evolving export control strategy and Reed's reporting from the Middle East: "How the UAE Got the U.S. to Bless its AI Ambitions" and U.S. Closer to Green Lighting NVIDIA Chips for Saudi Arabia.
Also read Pablo's two articles, Toward Digital Solidarity and Vassals vs. Rivals: The Geopolitical Future of AI Competition.