Derisky Business

The Long Tail of the Hormuz Energy Crisis with Rachel Ziemba

Emily is joined by Rachel Ziemba, CNAS adjunct senior fellow and energy markets expert, to unpack the ongoing energy crisis resulting from the U.S.-Iran military conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. They delve into why stabilizing oil prices will be easier said than done and what the current crisis has demonstrated about the effectiveness of U.S. economic pressure.Emily Kilcrease, Hit It With Your Best Shot: An American Doctrine of Economic Pressure 
This episode was recorded on Tuesday, April 7, before a 2-week ceasefire was announced between the United States, Israel, and Iran.

Derisky Business LIVE: One Year Since the "Liberation Day" Tariffs

A year ago, the Trump administration unveiled an ambitious plan to reset the global trading system on a day President Donald Trump dubbed “Liberation Day,” overturning decades of precedent and ushering in a new era of a far more assertive U.S. trade policy. While the long-term effects of the administration’s trade strategy remain uncertain, one year of the new trade approach has fundamentally shifted how America talks about the legal, economic, and political dynamics of trade.​​​​​​​This live episode was hosted by CNAS experts Emily Kilcrease and Geoffrey Gertz and features Kathleen Claussen, professor of law at Georgetown Law; Laura Silver, associate director at the Pew Research Center; and Chris Kennedy, adjunct senior fellow at CNAS. The discussion assessed the legal ramifications of the administration’s trade approach, highlighted new polling data from Pew Research on American views on U.S. trade policy, and examined why the economic impacts of the tariffs have not been as severe as initially projected.
Watch the event and find the fun graphs from Pew Research here.
USTR, Liberation Day One Year Later: Protecting American Jobs and Delivering Greater Market Access for American Farmers, Ranchers, and ManufacturersCNAS Insights, A Year After Liberation Day, Can Trump’s Trade Wars Be Salvaged?
Pew Research, How Americans View Trump’s Handling of Trade and Tariffs

Why Is There No Trade Jail? With Ambassador María Pagán.

María Pagán joins Emily and Geoff for a wide-ranging discussion on the past, present, and future of U.S. trade law and policy. They assess what’s working (and what’s not) at the WTO, the path forward for the Trump administration’s tariff strategy, and what to expect at this week’s WTO ministerial conference.María Pagán was most recently Deputy U.S. Trade Representative and Chief of Mission for the Permanent Mission of the United States to the WTO. Prior to that, she was Deputy General Counsel at USTR, responsible for supervising and providing legal advice to senior USTR officials on all legal aspects regarding trade negotiations, implementation of trade agreements, and trade related legislation and regulations. Prior to joining USTR in 2003, she worked as an attorney advisor at the Office of the Chief Counsel for International Commerce at the U.S. Department of Commerce (1993 – 2003).
Show notes
Ambassador Jamieson Greer, “Don’t Let International Law Get In the Way of Peace and Prosperity”, Speech at the University of Virginia School of Law, February 24, 2026
USTR, Further Perspectives On WTO Reform Communication From The United States ,  March 23, 2026
Dmitry Grozoubinski, Why Politicians Lie About Trade – and What You Need to Know About It
Scott Miller and Bill Reinsch, "The Trade Guys" podcast
Ardian Mollabeqiri and Robert Skidmore, “Trade Splaining” podcast

Who Will Make Money on AI? With Paul Scharre

Paul Scharre joins Emily and Geoff to talk about how commercial markets for AI might evolve and how different market outcomes may mean different types of risks for U.S. national security interests. They also get into the ongoing dispute between the Pentagon and Anthropic over who gets to decide how AI is used in the military.
Paul Scharre is an expert on military AI, Executive Vice President at CNAS, and the author of "Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence." Previously, he served at the Pentagon, where he played a leading role in establishing policies on unmanned and autonomous systems and emerging weapons technologies.
Shownotes:
Paul Scharre, Army of None
Paul Scharre, Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence
Jon Stewart, Dr. Sarah Shoker, and Paul Scharre, “Military AI: Anthropic, Open AI, & the Future of Warfare”, The Weekly Show with Jon Stewart
Paul Scharre, CNAS Insights | Setting the Rules for AI Warfare
Epoch.ai Epoch Capabilities Index

Emergency Live Pod: SCOTUS Strikes Down IEEPA Tariffs

In a blow to the Trump administration's trade policy, the Supreme Court ruled that the president cannot use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as a legal basis to impose tariffs. The Trump administration has relied on IEEPA tariffs as a tool of both economic and diplomatic coercion, seeking to reshape the global trading system and generate revenue for the United States.
The full implications of today's ruling remain unclear, with significant questions outstanding on what new tariffs the administration might introduce to replace IEEPA tariffs, how and whether tariff refunds will be issued, and what will happen to the trade deals signed with foreign governments in recent months.
In a live discussion, Geoff was joined by Carrie Cordero, director of the CNAS National Security Law Program, and Chris Kennedy, CNAS adjunct senior fellow and senior economist with Bloomberg Economics' Geoeconomics practice, to discuss the ruling.

Bonus: Washington’s New China Tech Strategy

This week, we're bringing you an episode from our friends at CSIS's Asia Chessboard Podcast, where Emily joins host Mike Green to unpack how U.S. national security strategy is shaping technology competition with China. They explore why Washington has rolled back certain tariffs and technology export restrictions, how allies and partners are responding to shifting U.S. trade policies, and whether the United States is still on track to win the U.S.-China tech race.
Find more episodes from the Asia Chessboard here. 
 

Moving On From Free Trade with Mark DiPlacido

Geoff sits down with Mark DiPlacido of American Compass to discuss his recent series of essays, On Balance, that advocates U.S. trade policy should move away from the previous free trade paradigm and instead prioritize balance and reciprocity. They consider the extent to which the Trump administration’s trade policy is aligned with this framework and discuss what to watch for on the big trade stories of 2026, and later delve into what role think tanks play in the current policy environment.
Mark DiPlacido, “On Balance,” American Compass
Douglas A. Irwin, Clashing Over Commerce

Breaking the Rare Earths Dependency with Chris Kennedy

Geoff sits down with Chris Kennedy to unpack the Trump administration’s National Security Strategy and debate what it will take for the United States to overcome its dependency on Chinese rare earths. Chris is a Senior Economist with Bloomberg Economics’ Geoeconomics practice and a new Adjunct Senior Fellow with the Energy, Economics and Security Program.
Dean Acheson, Present at the Creation: My Years in the State Department
Ryan Fedasiuk, “In Search of a China Strategy,” The American Enterprise, December 15, 2025
National Security Strategy 

What if 'America First' Appears to Work? With Tom Wright

Tom Wright joins to talk about his recent article, “What if 'America First' Appears to Work?" about the Trump administration’s “might makes right” approach to foreign policy, and whether this strategy is more politically viable than perhaps it should be, at least in the short term. Tom is senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former senior director of strategic planning at the NSC under the Biden Administration.
Thomas Wright, "What If ‘America First’ Appears to Work?”, The Atlantic
Dan Wang, Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future 

BONUS: The Future of IEPPA Tariffs with Francesca Ghiretti

In a bonus episode this week, we're sharing an episode of the great Geoeconomic Competition podcast hosted by Francesca Ghiretti, director of the RAND Europe China Initiative and a research leader at RAND Europe. Geoff was a recent guest on the podcast to discuss Trump's tariffs and the future of US trade policy.
Listen to the Geoeconomic Competition podcast here.
Derisky Business is off next week for Thanksgiving, with episodes returning the following week.