Derisky Business

Richard Nephew on the U.S. military strikes on Iran’s nuclear program

Richard Nephew, expert on sanctions and Iran’s nuclear program, joins Emily and Geoff to discuss the long history of U.S. policy towards Iran, the role of sanctions in constraining Iran’s nuclear program, and why the United States decided to proceed with military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He also explains why the next phase of Iran’s nuclear program might be the most dangerous.
 
Notes:
Richard Nephew, The Art of Sanctions: A View from the Field
Richard Nephew, “A Last Chance for Iran,” Foreign Affairs
Richard Nephew, “Can Israel Destroy Iran’s Nuclear Program?” Foreign Affairs
Thomas Schelling, Arms and Influence
Suzanne Maloney, Political Economy of Iran Since the Revolution

Tariffs & and the Defense Industrial Base with Becca Wasser, plus what’s new in the U.S.-China trade war

Geoff and Emily debrief on the latest news in the U.S.-China trade talks. Becca Wasser, senior fellow and deputy director of the CNAS defense program, joins to talk about what Trump’s tariffs mean for the defense industrial base.Shownotes:Becca Wasser and Phil Sheers,
“From Production Lines to Front Lines,” CNAS
Keith Bradsher, “China’s Chokehold on This Obscure Mineral Threatens the West’s Militaries,” The New York Times
Peter Foster, Demetri Sevastopulo, and Joe Leahy, “US and China agree to framework deal to restore trade war truce,” Financial Times
Arthur L. Herman, Freedom’s Forge (Amazon link)
 
Jenny Leonard and Mackenzie Hawkins, "US Makes Export Controls Negotiable as Part of China Trade Talks", Bloomberg
CNAS Annual Conference

LIVE: Derisky Business at the CNAS 2025 National Security Conference

To celebrate the podcast's one year anniversary, Emily and Geoff break down some big picture questions on how the trade wars are unfolding and the future of the global economic order.
Find all sessions and more at conference.cnas.org

AI Diffusion with Paul Scharre

Paul Scharre, AI expert and CNAS Executive Vice President, joins Geoff and Emily to talk about Trump’s AI dealmaking in the Gulf, the rescission of the Biden-era AI diffusion regulations, and the implications for U.S. national security.
Show notes:CNAS Annual Conference
Paul Scharre, “The case for regulating AI like critical infrastructure,” TED
Commerce Department, “Department of Commerce Rescinds Biden-Era Artificial Intelligence Diffusion Rule, Strengthens Chip-Related Export Controls”
Mackenzie Hawkins and Jenny Leonard, “Tech Chiefs, Foreign Leaders Urge Trump to Rethink AI Chip Curbs,” Bloomberg
Tripp Mickle and Ana Swanson, “Outsourcer in Chief: Is Trump Trading Away America’s Tech Future?,” The New York Times

How Do You Tariff a Movie and Liza Tobin on the Trade War with China

China expert Liza Tobin, managing director at Garnaut Global and new CNAS adjunct senior fellow, joins Emily Kilcrease and Geoffrey Gertz to discuss the ins and outs of the US-China trade war and the longer-term geopolitical stakes of the tech and trade competition.
Plus, Emily and Geoff explain why and how the Trump administration might follow through on its idea to put a 100% tariff on foreign-produced films.
Notes:
CNAS, CNAS Welcomes Shana Mansbach and Liza Tobin as Adjunct Senior Fellows
Liza Tobin, “China’s Brute Force Economics: Waking Up from the Dream of a Level Playing Field,” Texas National Security Review
Matt Pottinger and Liza Tobin, “China and America Aren’t Just in a Trade War. It’s a Fight for the 21st Century,” The Free Press
Robert Atkinson and Liza Tobin, “The Missing Piece in America’s Strategy for Techno-Economic Rivalry with China,” Lawfare
John Pomfret, The Beautiful Country and the Middle Kingdom

Trump's First 100 Days in Trade Policy

Emily and Geoff look back on the first 100 days of Trump’s trade policy, with a focus on how different parts of the U.S. political and economic system are reacting. They get into shifting public opinion on tariffs, congressional debates, market and private sector nervousness, and the courts - all of whom have a view on how the first 100 days of the Trump administration have played out.
CNAS, The First 100 Days
Irineo Cabreros and Aatish Bhatia, “Trump’s Astonishing 100 Days, in 8 Charts,” The New York Times
Megan Brenan, “Most Americans Skeptical About Benefits of Tariffs,” Gallup
Abha Bhattarai, Scott Clement and Emily Guskin, “Most Americans disapprove of Trump on tariffs, Post-ABC-Ipsos poll finds,” The Washington Post
 

What Just Happened in the Trade War + Getting Yippy with Richard Fontaine

While Geoff is on travel, CNAS CEO Richard Fontaine joins Emily to unpack the latest trade war developments, including why President Trump paused his reciprocal tariffs and what might come next.
Show notes:
Ana Swanson, “Want to Play a Game? Global Trade War Is the New Washington Pastime”, New York Times
 

BONUS: How Europe Could React to Trump's Tariffs

This week, we have a special episode in our feed from our fellow CNAS podcast Brussels Sprouts, hosted by Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend of the Transatlantic Security Program.
On this episode, recorded on April 3, Andrea and Jim are joined by Dan Mullaney and Tobias Gehrke to discuss how Trump's tariff announcement could impact European economies and the broader transatlantic relationship.
Dan Mullaney is the former assistant U.S. trade representative for Europe and the Middle East and is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
Tobias Gehrke is a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations whose research covers geoeconomics and European Economic Strategy.
Subscribe to Brussels Sprouts wherever you get your podcasts!

Trump’s Liberation Day Tariffs + Gaming How a Trade War Ends

Emily and Geoff are recuperating from a busy Liberation Day of new tariff announcements. On this week’s episode, they break down what new tariffs the President announced, raise some questions about how this sweeping new tariff regime will actually be implemented, and discuss what a recent CNAS economic wargame suggests about how foreign countries might respond. Plus, they argue about who gets to negotiate with the penguins.
Ana Swanson, “Want to Play a Game? Global Trade War Is the New Washington Pastime”, New York Times
White House, “Regulating Imports with a Reciprocal Tariff to Rectify Trade Practices that Contribute to Large and Persistent Annual United States Goods Trade Deficits“
Peter Harrell, “The Case Against IEEPA Tariffs”, Lawfare

What Tariffs to Expect When You’re Expecting Liberation Day

Emily and Geoff catch up on the Trump administration’s first big action on China tech competition, before digesting this week’s big tariff news (on autos) and looking ahead to next week’s big tariff news - what President Trump has called “Liberation Day”.
 
Notes:
 
White House, America First Trade Policy Memo
Polymarket betting market on Trump tariffs
 
Doug Irwin, “‘Reciprocal’ Tariffs Make No Sense,” Wall Street Journal
Commerce Department, “Commerce Further Restricts China’s Artificial Intelligence and Advanced Computing Capabilities”
White House, “Adjusting Imports of Automobiles and Automobile Parts Into the United States”