Derisky Business

Josh Kretman, former sanctions official, joins Emily to discuss whether there is a Trump doctrine on sanctions and what that might look like. They take a tour around the world’s sanctions hot spots, unpacking the latest developments on the Venezuela, Iran, and Russia sanctions programs and debating whether the U.S. can effectively wield geoeconomic power when China too often plays the role of a sanctions spoiler.
 
Show notes:
 
Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and PowerBill Bowder, Red Notice: A True Story of High Finance, Murder, and One Man's Fight for Justice NPR, “Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America,” June 18, 2026Hans Nichols, “Senators introduce revised Russia sanctions bill to honor Graham,” Axios, July 14, 2026Richard Nephew, Emily Kilcrease, and Geoff Gertz, “Richard Nephew on the U.S. military strikes on Iran’s nuclear program,”  Derisky Business, June 26, 2025Rachel Ziemba and Emily Kilcrease “The Long Tail of the Hormuz Energy Crisis with Rachel Ziemba,” Derisky Business, June 26, 2025Eleanor Hume and Kyle Rutter, Sanctions By the Numbers: 2025 Year in Review, CNAS, January 29, 2026Emily Kilcrease, Hit It With Your Best Shot: An American Doctrine of Economic Pressure, CNAS, April 1, 2026

Josh Kagan joins Emily and Geoff to give the big picture behind recent U.S. tariffs related to forced labor, as well as providing an insider’s view on the future of trade and labor issues. In an area that is often a blind spot for the U.S. national security community, Josh helps explain why labor issues have become central to the U.S. approach on trade.Josh Kagan is Special Counsel at Kelley Drye and previously served as the Assistant United States Trade Representative for Labor Affairs at USTR.USTR, Section 301 Investigation into Forced LaborWashington Post Editorial Board, “Trump tries a new trick to raise tariffs,” June 3, 2026USTR, “Ambassador Greer Pens Letter to Washington Post Editorial Board in Response to June 3 Editorial”Jamie Tronnes & Emily Kilcrease, “Trump’s Replacement Tariffs Will Have Unintended Consequences for USMCA,”National Review, June 12, 2026Robert Lighthizer, No Trade Is Free: Changing Course, Taking on China, and Helping America's WorkersMichael Beeman, Walking Out: America’s New Trade Policy in the Asia-Pacific and BeyondSherrod Brown, Myths of Free Trade: Why American Trade Policy Has Failed 

Emily and Geoff sit down with Tobias Gehrke to talk about why Europe is facing a looming trade war with China and how prepared (or not) it is to handle trade wars on multiple fronts. They also get Tobias’s take on how things are faring in the Transatlantic relationship, Europe’s pragmatic strategy for dealing with U.S. tariffs, and whether Europe can just wait out the Trump administration.Tobias is a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations where he focuses on European power. He covers geoeconomics, economic security, European economic strategy, and great power competition in the global economy.Shownotes: Tobias Gehrke, “Beijing hold’em: European cards against Chinese coercion,” European Council on Foreign Relations, March 31, 2026Richard Bravo, Daniel Basterio, and Jenny Leonard, “Left with few choices, EU braces for a trade fight with China,” Bloomberg, June 3, 2026U.S. Mission to the European Union, “Factsheet: The United States and European Union Reach a Massive Trade Deal,” July 28, 2025European Commission, “EU-US Trade Deal Explained,” July 28, 2025European Commission, “Strengthening Europe’s tech sovereignty,” June 3, 2026Francesca Ghiretti, Geoeconomic Competition Podcast

In a live conversation at CNAS, Emily unpacks a new CNAS report exploring how the private sector can advance economic security cooperation between the U.S. and South Korea. She's joined by Tami Overby, Partner at DGA; James Kim, Director of the Stimson Center's Korea Program; and Eleanor Hume, Research Assistant in the CNAS Energy, Economics, and Security Program and co-author of the report.
Show Notes:Geoffrey Gertz and Eleanor Hume, Invested Allies: How the Private Sector Can Boost U.S.-South Korea Economic Security Cooperation

Sara Schuman joins Emily to debrief on the Trump-Xi summit. She explains why it's OK to have a summit that is light on deliverables, describes how China is viewing its relative strength in the relationship, and outlines what she's looking for in the year ahead. Sara recently joined CNAS as an adjunct senior fellow, after a long career working on China trade issues for the U.S. government. She is also managing director at Beacon Global Strategies, where she leads the firm's international trade practice.
"US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer Talks China Trade," Bloomberg Talks Camille Boullenois, Malcolm Black, and Alessia Caruso, China’s Next-Generation Industrial Policy, U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Rhodium GroupLaura Silver and Laura Clancy, "Americans’ views of China have grown somewhat more positive in recent years," Pew Research CenterGraham Allison, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?The White House, "Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Secures Historic Deals with China, Delivering for American Workers, Farmers, and Industry"Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, "President Xi Jinping Holds Talks with U.S. President Donald J. Trump"

Earlier this week, Emily hosted Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Investment Security Chris Pilkerton for a live discussion at CNAS.
Investment security has emerged as a central pillar of U.S. national security and foreign policy, with expanding sets of U.S. and partner government policies addressing the national security implications of certain investment flows. The discussion will explore the administration’s perspectives on investment security and its ongoing efforts to both strengthen and streamline investment security programs, as well as how investment security fits into broader U.S. work to manage intensifying geopolitical competition. 
You can watch the full event here. 

Emily is joined by Rachel Ziemba, CNAS adjunct senior fellow and energy markets expert, to unpack the ongoing energy crisis resulting from the U.S.-Iran military conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. They delve into why stabilizing oil prices will be easier said than done and what the current crisis has demonstrated about the effectiveness of U.S. economic pressure.Emily Kilcrease, Hit It With Your Best Shot: An American Doctrine of Economic Pressure 
This episode was recorded on Tuesday, April 7, before a 2-week ceasefire was announced between the United States, Israel, and Iran.

A year ago, the Trump administration unveiled an ambitious plan to reset the global trading system on a day President Donald Trump dubbed “Liberation Day,” overturning decades of precedent and ushering in a new era of a far more assertive U.S. trade policy. While the long-term effects of the administration’s trade strategy remain uncertain, one year of the new trade approach has fundamentally shifted how America talks about the legal, economic, and political dynamics of trade.​​​​​​​This live episode was hosted by CNAS experts Emily Kilcrease and Geoffrey Gertz and features Kathleen Claussen, professor of law at Georgetown Law; Laura Silver, associate director at the Pew Research Center; and Chris Kennedy, adjunct senior fellow at CNAS. The discussion assessed the legal ramifications of the administration’s trade approach, highlighted new polling data from Pew Research on American views on U.S. trade policy, and examined why the economic impacts of the tariffs have not been as severe as initially projected.
Watch the event and find the fun graphs from Pew Research here.
USTR, Liberation Day One Year Later: Protecting American Jobs and Delivering Greater Market Access for American Farmers, Ranchers, and ManufacturersCNAS Insights, A Year After Liberation Day, Can Trump’s Trade Wars Be Salvaged?
Pew Research, How Americans View Trump’s Handling of Trade and Tariffs

María Pagán joins Emily and Geoff for a wide-ranging discussion on the past, present, and future of U.S. trade law and policy. They assess what’s working (and what’s not) at the WTO, the path forward for the Trump administration’s tariff strategy, and what to expect at this week’s WTO ministerial conference.María Pagán was most recently Deputy U.S. Trade Representative and Chief of Mission for the Permanent Mission of the United States to the WTO. Prior to that, she was Deputy General Counsel at USTR, responsible for supervising and providing legal advice to senior USTR officials on all legal aspects regarding trade negotiations, implementation of trade agreements, and trade related legislation and regulations. Prior to joining USTR in 2003, she worked as an attorney advisor at the Office of the Chief Counsel for International Commerce at the U.S. Department of Commerce (1993 – 2003).
Show notes
Ambassador Jamieson Greer, “Don’t Let International Law Get In the Way of Peace and Prosperity”, Speech at the University of Virginia School of Law, February 24, 2026
USTR, Further Perspectives On WTO Reform Communication From The United States ,  March 23, 2026
Dmitry Grozoubinski, Why Politicians Lie About Trade – and What You Need to Know About It
Scott Miller and Bill Reinsch, "The Trade Guys" podcast
Ardian Mollabeqiri and Robert Skidmore, “Trade Splaining” podcast

Paul Scharre joins Emily and Geoff to talk about how commercial markets for AI might evolve and how different market outcomes may mean different types of risks for U.S. national security interests. They also get into the ongoing dispute between the Pentagon and Anthropic over who gets to decide how AI is used in the military.
Paul Scharre is an expert on military AI, Executive Vice President at CNAS, and the author of "Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence." Previously, he served at the Pentagon, where he played a leading role in establishing policies on unmanned and autonomous systems and emerging weapons technologies.
Shownotes:
Paul Scharre, Army of None
Paul Scharre, Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence
Jon Stewart, Dr. Sarah Shoker, and Paul Scharre, “Military AI: Anthropic, Open AI, & the Future of Warfare”, The Weekly Show with Jon Stewart
Paul Scharre, CNAS Insights | Setting the Rules for AI Warfare
Epoch.ai Epoch Capabilities Index