Derisky Business

James Crabtree joins the podcast to discuss the new CNAS report he co-authored with Emily, Whither the Coalition? Assessing the Prospects of a Diverse Sanctions Coalition in Defense of Taiwan. Geoff, Emily, and James discuss the prospects of India, Singapore, and Germany joining the United States in a possible future Taiwan contingency scenario, including the political and economic constraints each country would weigh in making such a decision.James Crabtree is an Adjunct Senior Fellow in the CNAS Energy, Economics, and Security Program and a London-based geopolitical analyst and author with extensive experience working in Asia.Emily Kilcrease and James Crabtree, Whither the Coalition: Assessing the Prospects of a Diverse Sanctions Coalition in Defense of Taiwan, CNAS, August 18, 2026Matthew Mingey, Laura Gormley, and Logan Wright, Avoiding entanglement: G20 responses in a Taiwan crisis, The Atlantic Council and The Rhodium Group, November 12, 2024Howard Shatz et al., Economic Deterrence in a China Contingency, RAND, November 6, 2025James Crabtree, The Billionaire Raj: A Journey Through India’s New Gilded AgeJames Crabtree, The Perimeter: America's Struggle for Primacy in the PacificSadanand Dhume, The Unpredictable Rise and Uncertain Future of Modern India

Paul Haenle and Terah Lyons of JPMorganChase join Emily and Geoff to talk about their recent report on U.S.-China AI competition and what policymakers miss when they only look at the latest AI model benchmarks. They get into the latest uproar over (yet another) capable Chinese AI model, what U.S. industrial policy for AI should look like, and how capital can be allocated amidst rapid technological change and massive geopolitical uncertainty.
Paul Haenle is Managing Director and Head of Asia Pacific (APAC) Policy and Strategic Competitiveness at JPMorganChase, where he leads strategy and external engagement on policy issues critical to the firm’s global competitiveness, including trade and investment, supply chains, technology, and infrastructure. 
Terah Lyons is currently a Managing Director and the Global Head of AI and Data Policy at JPMorganChase, where she bridges the Chief Data and Analytics Office and Global Government Relations as a member of both executive teams, drives the company's global strategy, engagement, and positioning on AI, data, and digital policy issues, and support's the Firm's AI governance and responsible AI strategy. 
Disclosure: Separate from this podcast, JPMorganChase is a financial supporter of CNAS. As with all of our supporters, we maintain strict intellectual independence and editorial discretion in our research products, including our podcasts. More information on our intellectual independence policy can be found on our website.
Christopher Miller, Chip WarDan Wang, Breakneck: China’s Quest to Engineer the FutureGeoffrey Gertz and Emily Kilcrease, Who Will Make Money on AI?, CNAS, May 5, 2026Michael Cembalest, Patchmageddon: The race to patch software vulnerabilities before zero-day cyber-exploitations proliferate , JPMC, July 2026JPMorganChase, Beyond the Benchmarks: A Systemic View of U.S.-China AI Competition, May 2026

Emily and Geoff talk about the future of the North American trade relationship with Meredith Lilly and Jorge Guajardo. They get into what’s next for USMCA negotiations, why Canada and Mexico would support a Fortress USMCA approach to strengthening economic security alignment across the continent, and the big questions over what exactly the U.S. wants out of the USMCA talks. Plus, what happens if this all ends up in a “zombie USMCA!”Jorge Guajardo is a Partner at DGA Group and Mexico’s former ambassador to China. Meredith Lilly is Professor and Simon Reisman Chair in International Economic Policy at Carleton University and former Foreign Affairs and International Trade Advisor to then-Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
Neil Shearing, The Fractured Age: How The Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global Economy
David A. Gantz and Tony Payan, The Future of Trade: A North American Perspective
Emily Kilcrease and Geoffrey Gertz, Economic Security in North America: Recommendations for USMCA Review, December 3, 2025
Jamie Tronnes and Emily Kilcrease, “Trump’s Replacement Tariffs Will Have Unintended Consequences for USMCA,” National Review, June 12, 2026
Emily Kilcrease, “Statement for Office of the U.S. Trade Representative Hearing on Section 301 Investigations into Structural Excess Capacity,” May 5, 2026
Christopher Gundermann, Hugh Grant-Chapman, and Diego Marroquín Bitar, “Understanding President Trump’s New Tariffs on Canadian Imports,” CSIS, July 21, 2026  

Josh Kretman, former sanctions official, joins Emily to discuss whether there is a Trump doctrine on sanctions and what that might look like. They take a tour around the world’s sanctions hot spots, unpacking the latest developments on the Venezuela, Iran, and Russia sanctions programs and debating whether the U.S. can effectively wield geoeconomic power when China too often plays the role of a sanctions spoiler.
 
Show notes:
 
Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and PowerBill Bowder, Red Notice: A True Story of High Finance, Murder, and One Man's Fight for Justice NPR, “Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America,” June 18, 2026Hans Nichols, “Senators introduce revised Russia sanctions bill to honor Graham,” Axios, July 14, 2026Richard Nephew, Emily Kilcrease, and Geoff Gertz, “Richard Nephew on the U.S. military strikes on Iran’s nuclear program,”  Derisky Business, June 26, 2025Rachel Ziemba and Emily Kilcrease “The Long Tail of the Hormuz Energy Crisis with Rachel Ziemba,” Derisky Business, June 26, 2025Eleanor Hume and Kyle Rutter, Sanctions By the Numbers: 2025 Year in Review, CNAS, January 29, 2026Emily Kilcrease, Hit It With Your Best Shot: An American Doctrine of Economic Pressure, CNAS, April 1, 2026

Josh Kagan joins Emily and Geoff to give the big picture behind recent U.S. tariffs related to forced labor, as well as providing an insider’s view on the future of trade and labor issues. In an area that is often a blind spot for the U.S. national security community, Josh helps explain why labor issues have become central to the U.S. approach on trade.Josh Kagan is Special Counsel at Kelley Drye and previously served as the Assistant United States Trade Representative for Labor Affairs at USTR.USTR, Section 301 Investigation into Forced LaborWashington Post Editorial Board, “Trump tries a new trick to raise tariffs,” June 3, 2026USTR, “Ambassador Greer Pens Letter to Washington Post Editorial Board in Response to June 3 Editorial”Jamie Tronnes & Emily Kilcrease, “Trump’s Replacement Tariffs Will Have Unintended Consequences for USMCA,”National Review, June 12, 2026Robert Lighthizer, No Trade Is Free: Changing Course, Taking on China, and Helping America's WorkersMichael Beeman, Walking Out: America’s New Trade Policy in the Asia-Pacific and BeyondSherrod Brown, Myths of Free Trade: Why American Trade Policy Has Failed 

Emily and Geoff sit down with Tobias Gehrke to talk about why Europe is facing a looming trade war with China and how prepared (or not) it is to handle trade wars on multiple fronts. They also get Tobias’s take on how things are faring in the Transatlantic relationship, Europe’s pragmatic strategy for dealing with U.S. tariffs, and whether Europe can just wait out the Trump administration.Tobias is a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations where he focuses on European power. He covers geoeconomics, economic security, European economic strategy, and great power competition in the global economy.Shownotes: Tobias Gehrke, “Beijing hold’em: European cards against Chinese coercion,” European Council on Foreign Relations, March 31, 2026Richard Bravo, Daniel Basterio, and Jenny Leonard, “Left with few choices, EU braces for a trade fight with China,” Bloomberg, June 3, 2026U.S. Mission to the European Union, “Factsheet: The United States and European Union Reach a Massive Trade Deal,” July 28, 2025European Commission, “EU-US Trade Deal Explained,” July 28, 2025European Commission, “Strengthening Europe’s tech sovereignty,” June 3, 2026Francesca Ghiretti, Geoeconomic Competition Podcast

In a live conversation at CNAS, Emily unpacks a new CNAS report exploring how the private sector can advance economic security cooperation between the U.S. and South Korea. She's joined by Tami Overby, Partner at DGA; James Kim, Director of the Stimson Center's Korea Program; and Eleanor Hume, Research Assistant in the CNAS Energy, Economics, and Security Program and co-author of the report.
Show Notes:Geoffrey Gertz and Eleanor Hume, Invested Allies: How the Private Sector Can Boost U.S.-South Korea Economic Security Cooperation

Sara Schuman joins Emily to debrief on the Trump-Xi summit. She explains why it's OK to have a summit that is light on deliverables, describes how China is viewing its relative strength in the relationship, and outlines what she's looking for in the year ahead. Sara recently joined CNAS as an adjunct senior fellow, after a long career working on China trade issues for the U.S. government. She is also managing director at Beacon Global Strategies, where she leads the firm's international trade practice.
"US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer Talks China Trade," Bloomberg Talks Camille Boullenois, Malcolm Black, and Alessia Caruso, China’s Next-Generation Industrial Policy, U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Rhodium GroupLaura Silver and Laura Clancy, "Americans’ views of China have grown somewhat more positive in recent years," Pew Research CenterGraham Allison, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?The White House, "Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Secures Historic Deals with China, Delivering for American Workers, Farmers, and Industry"Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, "President Xi Jinping Holds Talks with U.S. President Donald J. Trump"

Earlier this week, Emily hosted Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Investment Security Chris Pilkerton for a live discussion at CNAS.
Investment security has emerged as a central pillar of U.S. national security and foreign policy, with expanding sets of U.S. and partner government policies addressing the national security implications of certain investment flows. The discussion will explore the administration’s perspectives on investment security and its ongoing efforts to both strengthen and streamline investment security programs, as well as how investment security fits into broader U.S. work to manage intensifying geopolitical competition. 
You can watch the full event here. 

Emily is joined by Rachel Ziemba, CNAS adjunct senior fellow and energy markets expert, to unpack the ongoing energy crisis resulting from the U.S.-Iran military conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. They delve into why stabilizing oil prices will be easier said than done and what the current crisis has demonstrated about the effectiveness of U.S. economic pressure.Emily Kilcrease, Hit It With Your Best Shot: An American Doctrine of Economic Pressure 
This episode was recorded on Tuesday, April 7, before a 2-week ceasefire was announced between the United States, Israel, and Iran.