Derisky Business

Trump’s Treasury and Commerce nominations + Nippon Steel’s bid for U.S. Steel

Emily and Geoff react to the nominations of Scott Bessent for U.S. Treasury Secretary and Howard Lutnick for U.S. Commerce Secretary and overall point man for trade and tariffs. Then Evan Robinson-Johnson, business reporter from the Pittsburgh Post Gazette, joins to talk about the national security review of Nippon Steel’s bid to buy U.S. Steel - which both President Biden and President-elect Trump have vowed to block. Complicated labor union dynamics, the companies’ threat to sue, and election-year politics have kept this deal in purgatory, but an impending government deadline could force action in the coming weeks.
“Editorial: Time for post-election sanity: Approve Nippon-U.S. Steel deal” by the Pittsburgh Post Gazette editorial board“Japanese steelmaker Nippon says it will not accept presidential block of U.S. Steel deal” by Evan Robinson-Johnson, Pittsburgh Post Gazette
“Arbitration board signals support for U.S. Steel’s sale to Nippon in a blow to United Steelworkers union” by Evan Robinson-Johnson, Pittsburgh Post Gazette
"US Steel Review Targeted by Republicans for Potential Probe" by Josh Wingrove, Bloomberg 
“Under Pressure, Dubai Company Drops Ports Deal” by David E. Sanger, The New York Times
Ralls V. CFIUS decision by U.S. Court of Appeals, District of Columbia Circuit

Trump 2.0's Economic Security Agenda

Emily and Geoff switch from obsessing over the election to obsessing over the transition. They dig into what a Trump 2.0 presidency will mean for tariffs, sanctions, export controls, and technology competition - and how the rest of the world might respond.

BONUS: Outbound Investment Rule

The Biden administration released its final rule on regulating outbound U.S. investments going into sensitive tech sectors in China. Emily and Geoff dig into the rule, along with what to expect next from Congress and international partners.
Check out prior CNAS work on outbound investment:
Joint CNAS-Atlantic Council report, "Sand in the Silicon: Designing an Outbound Investment Controls Mechanism"
Public comments on the draft rule:https://www.cnas.org/publications/commentary/comments-on-provisions-pertaining-to-u[…]nal-security-technologies-and-products-in-countries-of-concernhttps://www.cnas.org/publications/commentary/provisions-pertaining-to-u-s-investmen[…]nal-security-technologies-and-products-in-countries-of-concern
Congressional testimony:
https://www.cnas.org/publications/congressional-testimony/principles-and-policy-options-for-designing-better-investment-barriers

Careers in Economic Security with Michèle Flournoy and John Hughes

Emily and Geoff tackle some of the most common questions on starting and building a career in the field of economic security, with the help of Michèle Flournoy, former Under Secretary of Defense as well as the co-founder and current Chair of the Board of the Center for a New American Security, and John Hughes, a partner at the strategic advisory firm DGA Group and a CNAS Adjunct Senior Fellow.
Check out CNAS’ current internship and job opportunities at https://www.cnas.org/careers.
and read Michèle's recommendation:
A Passion for Leadership: Lessons on Change and Reform from Fifty Years of Public Service by Bob Gates.

BONUS: Comparing China Sanctions Under Trump and Biden

Join Emily Kilcrease and researcher Eleanor Hume to discuss the latest edition of CNAS's Sanctions by the Numbers series, examining how the U.S.'s sanctions policy on China has shifted under the Biden administration. 
Find the full report and its findings here: Sanctions by the Numbers: Comparing the Trump and Biden Administrations’ Sanctions and Export Controls on China

U.S. Chip Controls and the Future of AI Compute

That escalated quickly! Emily and Geoff discuss why the U.S. aim to deny China access to the computing power necessary for frontier AI capabilities has led to an ever expanding set of new export controls. They are joined by Reed Albergotti of Semafor to talk about what this means for the Middle East's tech ambitions and by Pablo Chavez to share his analysis on the drive for sovereign AI around the world.
 
Check out Emily's remarks on America's evolving export control strategy and Reed's reporting from the Middle East: "How the UAE Got the U.S. to Bless its AI Ambitions" and U.S. Closer to Green Lighting NVIDIA Chips for Saudi Arabia.
Also read Pablo's two articles, Toward Digital Solidarity and Vassals vs. Rivals: The Geopolitical Future of AI Competition.

Europe’s Take on Economic Security with EU Ambassador to the U.S. Jovita Neliupšienė

Ambassador Jovita Neliupšienė, the European Union's Ambassador to the United States, joins Emily and Geoff for a wide-ranging conversation on Europe's growing role as a economic statecraft power, the importance of the transatlantic alliance in addressing the strategic challenges posed by Russia and China, and why all Americans should drink champagne
Ambassador Neliupšienė recommends listeners tune in to the Trade-Off podcast about the people, politics, and power inside Europe’s trade policy.
Further Reading:
EU Competitiveness: Looking Ahead (The Draghi Report)
Containing Crisis: Strategic Concepts for Coercive Economic Statecraft from CNAS
The Brussels Effect: How the European Union Rules the World by Anu Bradford

How ASML Came to Dominate Chipmaking

NRC Media reporter Marc Hijink joined co-host Emily Kilcrease at a CNAS event to discuss his book, Focus: The ASML Way. For decades, ASML - the most valuable technology company in Europe - operated in the shadows, despite the fact that roughly 90 percent of all chips worldwide are made with ASML’s machines. In recent years, the Dutch manufacturing company has found itself at the center of a geopolitical storm between China and the United States and Europe. In this conversation, we delve into the history of the company, how it came to dominate the industry, and how it is navigating increasingly fraught geopolitical waters.

Geopolitical doomscrolling

Geoff and Emily talk about the tensions between social media platforms and governments around the world, including Telegram’s troubles in France and X’s spats with Brazil and Europe. Carrie Cordero, CNAS General Counsel and Robert M. Gates Senior Fellow, joins to talk TikTok and why it’s so complicated to ban the app in the United States.  
Carrie Cordero is the Robert M. Gates Senior Fellow and General Counsel at CNAS. Her research and writing interests focus on homeland security and intelligence community oversight, transparency, surveillance, cybersecurity, and related national and homeland security law and policy issues.

Economic Security in Asia Part 3: The View From Australia with Mike Green

On this international episode of Derisky Business, recorded at the United States Studies Center in Sydney, Australia, Dr. Mike Green joins the podcast to discuss how Australia and other Pacific countries view economic security issues, what countries in the region think about the U.S. presidential election, and how he is preparing for armageddon.
Mike’s Recommended Reading/Listening: Planning Armageddon: British Economic Warfare and the First World War, The Empire Podcast