Derisky Business

We interrupt our summer break to provide quick reactions to news this week that the Trump administration will begin allowing Nvidia and AMD to sell certain advanced semiconductors to China - so long as those companies agree to pay a commission fee to the U.S. government. While Emily is on vacation, Geoff is joined by CNAS Adjunct Senior Fellow and Managing Director of Garnaut Global Liza Tobin to dig into how we got to this point, if this arrangement is even legal, and what it means for the future of U.S.-China tech competition.
Matt Pottinger and Liza Tobin, “Trump Just Handed China the Tools to Beat America in AI”, The Free Press, August 11, 2025
Chris Miller, “China has its own concerns about Nvidia H20 chips”, Financial Times, August 11, 2025
Charles Rollet, “China's military tried to buy Nvidia chips for AI servers and a robot dog”, Business Insider, August 1, 2025

Emily and Geoff break their summer hiatus to launch a new CNAS report detailing insights from a trade wargame that examined how foreign governments might respond to a dramatic increase in U.S. tariffs. For this live event they are joined by trade experts Wendy Cutler, Meredith Lilly, and Thorsten Benner to discuss the report and catch up on the real-world trade wars. Derisky Business will return to regular programming in the fall.
Emily Kilcrease and Geoffrey Gertz, Game Over? How the United States Could Have Won the Trade Wars
 
 

While Derisky Business goes on summer break, revisit your favorite episodes of the podcast and dive into the Summer Reading List, featuring book recommendations from previous podcast guests and work from CNAS experts. Emily and Geoff will be back in the fall to catch up on all the economic security happenings.
 
Read the list here!
 
https://www.cnas.org/publications/commentary/happy-summer-from-derisky-business

Richard Nephew, expert on sanctions and Iran’s nuclear program, joins Emily and Geoff to discuss the long history of U.S. policy towards Iran, the role of sanctions in constraining Iran’s nuclear program, and why the United States decided to proceed with military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He also explains why the next phase of Iran’s nuclear program might be the most dangerous.
 
Notes:
Richard Nephew, The Art of Sanctions: A View from the Field
Richard Nephew, “A Last Chance for Iran,” Foreign Affairs
Richard Nephew, “Can Israel Destroy Iran’s Nuclear Program?” Foreign Affairs
Thomas Schelling, Arms and Influence
Suzanne Maloney, Political Economy of Iran Since the Revolution

Geoff and Emily debrief on the latest news in the U.S.-China trade talks. Becca Wasser, senior fellow and deputy director of the CNAS defense program, joins to talk about what Trump’s tariffs mean for the defense industrial base.Shownotes:Becca Wasser and Phil Sheers,
“From Production Lines to Front Lines,” CNAS
Keith Bradsher, “China’s Chokehold on This Obscure Mineral Threatens the West’s Militaries,” The New York Times
Peter Foster, Demetri Sevastopulo, and Joe Leahy, “US and China agree to framework deal to restore trade war truce,” Financial Times
Arthur L. Herman, Freedom’s Forge (Amazon link)
 
Jenny Leonard and Mackenzie Hawkins, "US Makes Export Controls Negotiable as Part of China Trade Talks", Bloomberg
CNAS Annual Conference

To celebrate the podcast's one year anniversary, Emily and Geoff break down some big picture questions on how the trade wars are unfolding and the future of the global economic order.
Find all sessions and more at conference.cnas.org

Paul Scharre, AI expert and CNAS Executive Vice President, joins Geoff and Emily to talk about Trump’s AI dealmaking in the Gulf, the rescission of the Biden-era AI diffusion regulations, and the implications for U.S. national security.
Show notes:CNAS Annual Conference
Paul Scharre, “The case for regulating AI like critical infrastructure,” TED
Commerce Department, “Department of Commerce Rescinds Biden-Era Artificial Intelligence Diffusion Rule, Strengthens Chip-Related Export Controls”
Mackenzie Hawkins and Jenny Leonard, “Tech Chiefs, Foreign Leaders Urge Trump to Rethink AI Chip Curbs,” Bloomberg
Tripp Mickle and Ana Swanson, “Outsourcer in Chief: Is Trump Trading Away America’s Tech Future?,” The New York Times

China expert Liza Tobin, managing director at Garnaut Global and new CNAS adjunct senior fellow, joins Emily Kilcrease and Geoffrey Gertz to discuss the ins and outs of the US-China trade war and the longer-term geopolitical stakes of the tech and trade competition.
Plus, Emily and Geoff explain why and how the Trump administration might follow through on its idea to put a 100% tariff on foreign-produced films.
Notes:
CNAS, CNAS Welcomes Shana Mansbach and Liza Tobin as Adjunct Senior Fellows
Liza Tobin, “China’s Brute Force Economics: Waking Up from the Dream of a Level Playing Field,” Texas National Security Review
Matt Pottinger and Liza Tobin, “China and America Aren’t Just in a Trade War. It’s a Fight for the 21st Century,” The Free Press
Robert Atkinson and Liza Tobin, “The Missing Piece in America’s Strategy for Techno-Economic Rivalry with China,” Lawfare
John Pomfret, The Beautiful Country and the Middle Kingdom

Emily and Geoff look back on the first 100 days of Trump’s trade policy, with a focus on how different parts of the U.S. political and economic system are reacting. They get into shifting public opinion on tariffs, congressional debates, market and private sector nervousness, and the courts - all of whom have a view on how the first 100 days of the Trump administration have played out.
CNAS, The First 100 Days
Irineo Cabreros and Aatish Bhatia, “Trump’s Astonishing 100 Days, in 8 Charts,” The New York Times
Megan Brenan, “Most Americans Skeptical About Benefits of Tariffs,” Gallup
Abha Bhattarai, Scott Clement and Emily Guskin, “Most Americans disapprove of Trump on tariffs, Post-ABC-Ipsos poll finds,” The Washington Post
 

While Geoff is on travel, CNAS CEO Richard Fontaine joins Emily to unpack the latest trade war developments, including why President Trump paused his reciprocal tariffs and what might come next.
Show notes:
Ana Swanson, “Want to Play a Game? Global Trade War Is the New Washington Pastime”, New York Times