Derisky Business

Paul Scharre joins Emily and Geoff to talk about how commercial markets for AI might evolve and how different market outcomes may mean different types of risks for U.S. national security interests. They also get into the ongoing dispute between the Pentagon and Anthropic over who gets to decide how AI is used in the military.
Paul Scharre is an expert on military AI, Executive Vice President at CNAS, and the author of "Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence." Previously, he served at the Pentagon, where he played a leading role in establishing policies on unmanned and autonomous systems and emerging weapons technologies.
Shownotes:
Paul Scharre, Army of None
Paul Scharre, Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence
Jon Stewart, Dr. Sarah Shoker, and Paul Scharre, “Military AI: Anthropic, Open AI, & the Future of Warfare”, The Weekly Show with Jon Stewart
Paul Scharre, CNAS Insights | Setting the Rules for AI Warfare
Epoch.ai Epoch Capabilities Index

In a blow to the Trump administration's trade policy, the Supreme Court ruled that the president cannot use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as a legal basis to impose tariffs. The Trump administration has relied on IEEPA tariffs as a tool of both economic and diplomatic coercion, seeking to reshape the global trading system and generate revenue for the United States.
The full implications of today's ruling remain unclear, with significant questions outstanding on what new tariffs the administration might introduce to replace IEEPA tariffs, how and whether tariff refunds will be issued, and what will happen to the trade deals signed with foreign governments in recent months.
In a live discussion, Geoff was joined by Carrie Cordero, director of the CNAS National Security Law Program, and Chris Kennedy, CNAS adjunct senior fellow and senior economist with Bloomberg Economics' Geoeconomics practice, to discuss the ruling.

This week, we're bringing you an episode from our friends at CSIS's Asia Chessboard Podcast, where Emily joins host Mike Green to unpack how U.S. national security strategy is shaping technology competition with China. They explore why Washington has rolled back certain tariffs and technology export restrictions, how allies and partners are responding to shifting U.S. trade policies, and whether the United States is still on track to win the U.S.-China tech race.
Find more episodes from the Asia Chessboard here. 
 

Geoff sits down with Mark DiPlacido of American Compass to discuss his recent series of essays, On Balance, that advocates U.S. trade policy should move away from the previous free trade paradigm and instead prioritize balance and reciprocity. They consider the extent to which the Trump administration’s trade policy is aligned with this framework and discuss what to watch for on the big trade stories of 2026, and later delve into what role think tanks play in the current policy environment.
Mark DiPlacido, “On Balance,” American Compass
Douglas A. Irwin, Clashing Over Commerce

Geoff sits down with Chris Kennedy to unpack the Trump administration’s National Security Strategy and debate what it will take for the United States to overcome its dependency on Chinese rare earths. Chris is a Senior Economist with Bloomberg Economics’ Geoeconomics practice and a new Adjunct Senior Fellow with the Energy, Economics and Security Program.
Dean Acheson, Present at the Creation: My Years in the State Department
Ryan Fedasiuk, “In Search of a China Strategy,” The American Enterprise, December 15, 2025
National Security Strategy 

Tom Wright joins to talk about his recent article, “What if 'America First' Appears to Work?" about the Trump administration’s “might makes right” approach to foreign policy, and whether this strategy is more politically viable than perhaps it should be, at least in the short term. Tom is senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former senior director of strategic planning at the NSC under the Biden Administration.
Thomas Wright, "What If ‘America First’ Appears to Work?”, The Atlantic
Dan Wang, Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future 

In a bonus episode this week, we're sharing an episode of the great Geoeconomic Competition podcast hosted by Francesca Ghiretti, director of the RAND Europe China Initiative and a research leader at RAND Europe. Geoff was a recent guest on the podcast to discuss Trump's tariffs and the future of US trade policy.
Listen to the Geoeconomic Competition podcast here.
Derisky Business is off next week for Thanksgiving, with episodes returning the following week. 
 

Kathleen Claussen, Professor of Law at Georgetown University, joins Emily and Geoff to discuss the SCOTUS case on Trump's tariffs. They share their insights from the recent SCOTUS hearing, explore possible outcomes of the case, and lay out how the Trump administration will likely respond if some or all of the tariffs are struck down. Plus, Kathleen shares why she's not placing any Polymarket bets on the case's outcome.
Kathleen Claussen and Timothy Meyer, “The Foreign Commerce Power,” California Law Review, forthcoming, Duke Law School Public Law & Legal Theory Series No. 2025-44, August 24, 2025
Oral Arguments before the Supreme Court on the Legality of IEEPA Tariffs
International Economic Law and Policy Blog 
 

Derisky Business is returning for season 2! After a brief hiatus in which obviously nothing (nothing!) notable happened in the world of trade and economic security, Emily and Geoff are back to dive into all your favorite economic security topics. In their first episode back, they are joined by Peter Harrell, the host of the "Security Economics" podcast, to discuss the concept of economic security agreements and why the U.S. should start bringing economic security priorities like export controls into formal trade deals.
 
Geoffrey Gertz and Emily Kilcrease, “A World Safe for Prosperity-How America Can Foster Economic Security”, Foreign Affairs, February 6, 2025
Emily Kilcrease and Geoffrey Gertz, “Launch Economic Security Agreements” in CNAS Report: The First 100 Days
Peter Harrell, “How Trump’s trade agreements can reduce US and allied economic ties with China”, Journal of International Economic Law, July 2, 2025
Geoffrey Gertz, Analysis of the new US-Malaysia trade agreement, LinkedIn

We interrupt our summer break to provide quick reactions to news this week that the Trump administration will begin allowing Nvidia and AMD to sell certain advanced semiconductors to China - so long as those companies agree to pay a commission fee to the U.S. government. While Emily is on vacation, Geoff is joined by CNAS Adjunct Senior Fellow and Managing Director of Garnaut Global Liza Tobin to dig into how we got to this point, if this arrangement is even legal, and what it means for the future of U.S.-China tech competition.
Matt Pottinger and Liza Tobin, “Trump Just Handed China the Tools to Beat America in AI”, The Free Press, August 11, 2025
Chris Miller, “China has its own concerns about Nvidia H20 chips”, Financial Times, August 11, 2025
Charles Rollet, “China's military tried to buy Nvidia chips for AI servers and a robot dog”, Business Insider, August 1, 2025