Derisky Business

What Tariffs to Expect When You’re Expecting Liberation Day

Emily and Geoff catch up on the Trump administration’s first big action on China tech competition, before digesting this week’s big tariff news (on autos) and looking ahead to next week’s big tariff news - what President Trump has called “Liberation Day”.
 
Notes:
 
White House, America First Trade Policy Memo
Polymarket betting market on Trump tariffs
 
Doug Irwin, “‘Reciprocal’ Tariffs Make No Sense,” Wall Street Journal
Commerce Department, “Commerce Further Restricts China’s Artificial Intelligence and Advanced Computing Capabilities”
White House, “Adjusting Imports of Automobiles and Automobile Parts Into the United States”

“Chokepoints” with Edward Fishman

Emily and Geoff are joined by CNAS Adjunct Senior Fellow Eddie Fishman to discuss his new best-selling book Chokepoints, on how America has weaponized the global economy. They share economic war stories about U.S. actions against Iran, China, and Russia, and Eddie explains why his advice for the Trump administration on economic warfare is “to go big or go home”.
Also, check out new CNAS research, Sanctions By The Numbers: 2024 Year in Review, which provides data-driven analysis on a record-setting sanctions year.
Edward Fishman, “Chokepoints”
Robin Wright, “Stuart Levey’s War”, New York Times Magazine
Geoffrey Gertz, “Goodbye to Small Yard, High Fence”, New York Times
Doug Irwin “Clashing Over Commerce”
Stefan Zweig “The World of Yesterday”

No Way to Wage a Trade War with Peter Harrell and JP Morgan's Joyce Chang

On a live episode of Derisky Business, Emily and Geoff sit down with Peter Harrell, former White House Senior Director for International Economics, and Joyce Chang, Global Chair of Research with JP Morgan's Commercial and Investment Bank, to analyze the North American trade war, how U.S. trading partners, markets and the private sector are reacting, and why someone should sue over the tariffs.
WSJ Editorial on IEEPA-based tariffs
Brad Setser's "Follow the Money" blog
Follow Peter Harrell on LinkedIn
Eddie Fishman's "Chokepoints"
 
And register here for the CNAS Book Event with Eddie Fishman on 3/12
 

Canada Reacts to Trump Tariffs with CBC’s Alexander Panetta

Alexander Panetta, Washington correspondent for CBC, the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, joins Geoff and Emily to discuss Canada’s reactions to the latest trade war salvos. He explains Trump’s “reverse Midas touch” when it comes to shaping Canadian public opinion, discusses how the upcoming Canadian elections may alter Canada’s approach to the United States, and lays out the stakes of the trade war for the future of U.S.-Canadian relations.
Register for tomorrow's event!
Yougov polling, Many Americans and Canadians say higher U.S. tariffs hurt both economies; half of Canadians boycott U.S. companiesAndrea Mandel-Campbell, Why Mexicans Don't Drink Molson: Rescuing Canadian Business From the Suds of Global ObscurityLawrence Martin, The Presidents and the Prime Ministers: Washington and Ottawa Face to Face: The Myth of Bilateral Bliss, 1867-1982Tim Cook, The Good Allies: How Canada and the United States Fought Together to Defeat Fascism during the Second World War

America First Investment Policy + Europe's Trump Strategy with Agathe Demarais

 Emily and Geoff catch up on the America First Investment Policy memo and other news from the last week, before sitting down with Agathe Demarais of the European Council on Foreign Relations to discuss how Europe is responding to Trump and the future of the transatlantic economic security relationship. (Note: This episode was recorded prior to reports on Wednesday that the Trump administration intends to apply 25% tariffs on EU goods.)
Register for a special CNAS conversation with Eddie Fishman who joins Emily to discuss his new book CHOKEPOINTS: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare.
 
Register for the event here!
White House, America First Investment Policy
White House, Defending American Companies and Innovators From Overseas Extortion and Unfair Fines and Penalties
Agathe Demarais, Backfire: How Sanctions Reshape the World Against U.S. Interests
Agathe Demarais, “Learning from shipwrecked sailors: Three ways Europeans can weather the Trump storm,” ECFR Commentary
Agathe Demarais and Abraham Newman, “Europe Must Unlock Its Geoeconomic Power,” Foreign Affairs
Agathe Demarais, “Why Putin is finally negotiating,” Politico
Agathe Demarais, “Hard, fast, and where it hurts: Lessons from Ukraine-related sanctions for a Taiwan conflict scenario”, ECFR Policy Brief

Bruce Andrews on the Geopolitics of Semiconductors

Emily and Geoff quickly debrief on the week’s tariff news, including new 25% levies on steel and aluminum imports, before chatting all things semiconductors with Bruce Andrews, who until recently served as Intel’s chief government affairs officer. (Note: This episode was recorded Wednesday February 12, before President Trump's Thursday statements on reciprocal tariffs.)
White House Proclamation “Adjusting Steel Imports Into the United States”, February 10, 2025
Bruce’s book recommendation “On Xi Jinping” by Kevin Rudd

O Canada! Making Sense of Last Weekend's Tariffs

Emily and Geoff digest this past weekend’s on-again, off-again 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as the 10% tariffs on China (that at least for now are still here), and debate what these tariff dramas mean for the Trump team’s longer-term ambitions to restructure the global economic order.
Geoffrey Gertz and Emily Kilcrease, “A World Safe for Prosperity: How America Can Foster Economic Security,” Foreign Affairs, February 6, 2025 
Peter Harrell, “The Case Against IEEPA Tariffs,” Lawfare, January 31, 2025 
Ambassador Robert E. Lighthizer, “Want Free Trade? May I Introduce You to the Tariff,” The New York Times, February 6, 2025 
Noah Smith, “When are Tariffs Good?”, Noahpinon, February 6, 2025
Emily Kilcrease, "Articulate a Clear Tariff Roadmap," CNAS, January 20, 2025 

Colombia Tariffs, Banning Chinese Drones, and Stacie Pettyjohn on Drone Warfare

Emily and Geoff play a quick round of Tariff Tarot to dissect Trump’s tariff threats on Colombia last weekend. Then they dig in to the bipartisan debate over banning various connected products, including drones, from China, and explain why this may be one area of continuity between the Biden and Trump administrations. Finally, Dr. Stacie Pettyjohn, senior fellow and director of the CNAS Defense Program, joins to discuss her research on how drones are changing warfare and why the United States needs to invest in the drone industrial base.
“Securing the Information and Communications Technology and Services Supply Chain: Unmanned Aircraft Systems”
Stacie Pettyjohn, Hannah Dennis and Molly Campbell, “Swarms over the Strait: Drone Warfare in a Future Fight to Defend Taiwan”
Stacie Pettyjohn, “Evolution Not Revolution: Drone Warfare in Russia’s 2022 Invasion of Ukraine”
Emily Kilcrease, “Using a Sanctions Framework to Fix the ICTS Executive Order,” Lawfare

America First Trade Policy and Trump's First 100 Days

Emily and Geoff dive in on the unfinished business Trump is inheriting and unpack what we learned from the America First Trade Policy executive memo. Plus we share a few thoughts on how to get the economic security agenda started on the right track, based on our contributions to a new CNAS report on Trump’s First 100 Days.
Show notes:
America First Trade Policy memo
Stephan Miran’s “A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System"
CNAS Report: “The First 100 Days”
And see CNAS “Disorderly Conduct” report for prior analysis of the U.S.-China Phase One Agreement, the merging of economic and security interests, and the need for economic security agreements

Biden’s Big Bet to Control AI Diffusion with Paul Scharre

AI expert Paul Scharre, executive vice president and director of studies at the Center for a New American Security, joins Emily and Geoff to dig into the Biden Administration’s latest export controls on advanced semiconductors and AI plus the prospects for building a global regime to control AI diffusion.
Press release and summary of the AI diffusion rule from the Commerce Department 
Paul Scharre, Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence 
Paul Scharre, “Decoupling Wastes U.S. Leverage on China,” Foreign Policy
Paul Scharre, “Regulating AI is Easier than you Think,” Time
Epoch AI, a great data source on AI developments: epoch.ai